91st Oscars: Best Picture

Which actually means Best English film but most of the times the actual best film of the year is overlooked due to something known as a preferential ballot which results in a film that is more universally liked taking home the prize. This year will see many Best Picture rules broken no matter which film takes home the prize.

Perplexing stuff about this year is that 'Cold War' a film with direction and cinematography nods has been snubbed despite there being 2 spots available. This is a clear indication that the Academy is firmly in favour of another Black and white nom English film and didn't want to create a divide in the minds of voters who could have been swayed by the first time ever presence of 2 films in the Best Picture Category at a single ceremony.

Other shockers were the snub of Barry Jenkins 'If Beale Street could talk.' There is buzz around Regina King winning the supporting actress as a compensation for the films shocking snubs. It's a cascading effect as that compensation award results in a better performance getting snubbed and then that performer being rewarded years later under the guise of a career award over someone who was actually much better.

Other snubs: First Man, A Quiet Place, Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

Those that made it in the order I think they would rank.

Bohemian Rhapsody
This film was shoddy and a concert film. It had a troubled production and is possibly here only due to its win at the Globes in Beat Drama which saw it beat out heavy favourites like A Star is Born and Green Book. This could have swayed voters into considering this concert film for a nomination for the Best Picture. It is up for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing and being a concert film it has a strong chance at taking home both the awards. The only award that Bohemian Rhapsody may take home is the Best Actor trophy for Rami Malek. Best Picture seems unlikely as ever since the introduction of a preferential ballot no film has won the Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination.

Black Panther
The movie has gotten the theme of opening up your borders. It has an A- list cast, though unfortunately none of them havw been nominated for any individual acting awards. The cast did win best ensemble in a motion picture at the Screen Actor Guild Awards, but the lack of solo nominations will cost it at the Dolby Theatre. It is also absent from Direction, Screenplay(Best Picture seems unlikely as ever since the introduction of a preferential ballot no film has won the Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination), Cinematography and Editing which are considered to be indicators of who will win Best Picture.

Superhero movies were never considered to be Oscar calibre and Black Panthers nomination itself was a remarkable achievement though it seems as though it'll have to consider this nomination as a win for many superhero films of the past and congratulated for opening the gates for superhero films to be considered for the Academy's top prize. (Avengers Endgame could stake a claim for it next year)

Vice
This movie is just here because of the sheer weight of performance from its leads. It is a solid film with good support from the Acting branch and has 3 acting nominations. Further nominations in the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay and Editing categories also show us that this film is a good enough contender, but it is divisive which is a bad thing in a category which sees the winner determined by a preferential ballot voting system. The film is a contender and possibly favourite in Best Makeup and Hairstyling (along side Mary Queen of Scots and Border)for the amazing work done on Christian Bale.

The Favourite
It is the joint most nominated film at this year's Oscars with 10 nods. This film focuses on Queen Anne and examines the efforts of 2 cousins as the vie to be her favourite. This is the sort of costume drama that is traditionally rewarded by the Academy but this year it looks as though a nomination is as good as it gets for the favourite in this category. Expect the film to take home Best Costume Design, Best Production Design. The Favourite is a serious contender to take home Best Original Screenplay where it is up against Green Book and Roma and in my opinion it has a much better script of the 2 (and this is a crucial category for Roma' s Best Picture chances). It's Lead and Supporting Actresses Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz are in with a shout in their respective categories and so is director Yorgos Lanthimos. The fact that this British movie couldn't beat awards juggernaut Roma at the British Academy Awards seem to show that it won't be a real threat at the Dolby Theatre in this category.

A Star is Born
This was the pre award swing favourite but the backlash of it being a remake hit it hard. The movie is a crowd pleaser has 3 acting nominations is an ode to a timeless story and one that focuses on the rise and fall of shobiz and what happens behind the scenes. So what happened? It lost out at the Globes to Bohemian Rhapsody. Bradley Cooper was snubbed for Director at the Oscars and also for Best Debut director at the DGA awards. From Awards favourite, this film is now looking likely to take home just Best Song(based on its downwards trajectory it could possibly lose out on that too)

This doesn't seem like that sort of Awards movie and despite it being about shobiz it doesn't show it in a good light an actually serves as a vehicle to push people away from the industry. Only 2 remakes have ever taken home Best Picture (Ben-hur and The Departed) and those are tough odds to overcome.

Green Book
Green Book is the story of a Jazz players journey through the deep south along with his driver and bodyguard. The movie has some serious awards momentum heading into the Dolby Theatre and could be a beneficiary of the preferential ballot as it is a feel good film. It won the Producers Guild Award which has seen 20 of its winners take home the Best Picture Oscar. It's factual inaccuracies which have emerged in the media in the lat few weeks could possibly alienate voters and the lack of director nomination (after he was there in the DGA nominations for Best Director) proves that voters are alienated against this film.

It has locked onto one acting nomination (for Viggo Mortensen) and it's supporting actor (Mahershala Ali) has been unchallenged at any of the precursors. The film has additional nominations in Original Screenplay (vs The Favourite and Roma) and Editing (crucial categories for a film to clinch Best Picture) but seems unlikely to take home the golden statuette right now unless...voters are divided between.....


BlackKklansman
Spike Lee's film based on a true story of a policeman infiltrating the Colarado Springs chapter of the Ku Klux Klan is a commentary which can be related to even almost 50 years after the movie was set. It combines sharp satire along with strong social commentary and leaves a mark on the minds of voters.

Lee has earned a career first nomination for Best Director and has also received a nod for and the favourite to win Best Adapted Screenplay. With nominations in Editing and Direction and an acting nomination Blackkklansman coupled with its subject matter and it's relevance in present days and the films message it should be an odds on favourite to take home the Best Picture. It's no show in Cinematography works against it but Roma and the other nominees have even greater odds to overcome.

It has lost out on awards at the Globes (which has a tendency to reward more popular films) and the BAFTA(which favours Brits) but if there is any award show at which BlackKklansman can potentially steal Rome's thunder it is The Oscars.

Roma
Roma is a tale by director Alfonso Cuaron about his life which focuses on a maid and the family who employs her. It's a simple story with exquisite cinematography.
A film that is to be considered a serious contender at the Oscars needs to have widespread support as members of all branches vote in this category. With 10 nominations and strong support from the largest branch (actors) a nomination for Marina de Tavira in the Supporting Actress and Yalitza Aparaicio in the Lead Actress category drives home that fact. Alfonso Cuaron looks set to take home the Best Director trophy as well in keeping with the Academy's pattern since 2012 of giving the award to the most visually pleasing film.
It seems like a sure shot winner for Cinematography as well for every single frame looks so fabulous on screen and has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay(where The Favourite is the favourite)
It has won the top award at the Directors Guild Awards(has matched with the winner of Best Picture at the Oscars for the last 6 years) the BAFTA's and the Critics Choice Awards and had a nomination in the top category at the Producers Guild Awards which seem to make it the top pick for many. But.....
The things against this film are it's distributor (Netflix) whom the Academy haven't been fond of. Another set of voters may be inclined to give Roma it's Best Foreign Language Oscar and consider their work done and reward one of their own English films with the top prize. The film was snubbed completely at the SAG Award (Ensemble and individual) and even though 2 films (Braveheart and The Shape of Water )were snubbed in the Ensemble category and went on to pick up Best Picture they had nods in the individual categories. Roma has also missed out on an editing nomination at the Oscars which historically goes against it. (Birdman did it, but it won Best Original Screenplay) voters may also want to go against the tide and not seem as though the 91st Academy Awards is the Roma Appreciation night as was predicted.



Will win: Roma
Should win: BlackKklansman
Dark Horse: Green Book/A Star is Born/ The Favourite/Vice

91st Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The best Actor race does not have a candidate who is miles ahead of the competition like Gary Oldman last year and Casey Affleck Leonardo DiCaprio in the years before.

Quite often along with the best performance the actors decide to award their peer who has been a consistent actor throughout his career and has not quite managed to reach the upper echelons.

The buzz was always around 4 actors, all of whom have been nominated.

The 5th one is Willem Dafoe who plays Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate. He isn't going to win.

Viggo Mortensen-  Tony Vallelonga (Green Book)

Viggo Mortensen is becoming a consistent name in this cateogry with his nod in years. In a film where his co-actor Mahershala Ali has dominated the supporting actor category it's hard to see Viggo getting any love here. If the precursors are an indicator and they usually are. It's not going to be Viggo's night.

Bradley Cooper - Jackson Maine (A Star is Born)
A Star is Born sees Bradley Cooper nominated as an actor,writer and producer His performance as Jackson Maine made some look at him as a pathetic individual. As that is how we view people with mental disorders don't we. He captures the other side of a performer and we see what they go through when they are off stage. What goes against Cooper is that he has thrown in his hat in multiple categories this year and voters feel that the other one will reward him and they do no need to do so.

It all comes down to these two....


Rami Malek- Freddie Mercury/Farrokh Bulsara (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Has won the Golden Globe for Best Actor- Drama, SAG award for Best Actor and the BAFTA best actor. He plays a very famous character in Freddie Mercury and made audiences think that the legendary Queen band member had risen from the dead to portray himself in this biopic. The recreation of the LiveAid concert was mesmerising and despite allegations of the film being retconned to present a sanitised version of Freddie Mercury and a timeline to create more dramatic effect you cannot take away that amazing performance of Rami Malek. Voters seem to think so as well as apart from the Critics Choice Awards, every other award body has chosen Rami Malek as their Best Actor.

This character fits the bill among Academy voters as a real figure. He is also a popular figure as audiences the world over appreciate his performances as Elliot Alderson in the show Mr. Robot. The fact that this movie is nominated may draw a large number of casual music fans and Tv show fans to the Oscars. A Malek loss would alienate the audiences even further.



Christian Bale- Dick Cheney (Vice)
Won Golden Globe for Best Actor- Musical and Comedy, Won Critics Choice Award for Best Actor and Critics Choice for Best Actor in a Comedy. Christian Bale plays the role of Vice President Dick Cheney and his transformation is just remarkable, despite us having come to expect such things from the man. He has taken home an Academy Award and his performance isn't the one that will blow the audiences and voters away to persuade them to bestow him with a second Academy Award. The character he plays is controversial and the film has divided the audiences and critics alike.

It is a race between Bale and Malek and it seems as though Malek will take this one and Oscar Winner to his resume. 

91st Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

This is a category with no favourite.

The winner of the SAG award Emily Blunt- A Quiet Place hasn't even been nominated for the Oscar marking the first time this has ever happened.

 Perplexing how some things happen right.

Marina de Tavira - Sofía(Roma)
The Mexican actress seems to have made it here only due to the Academy's overwhelming support for Roma.
Her nomination has resulted in snubs to Emily Blunt who in my opinion takes home the prize just for her scene in ' A Quiet Place where she is in labour and cannot make a sound as the monsters are in the house.

Emma Stone - Abigail Masham (The Favourite)
Has won the Academy Award for Lead Actress just 2 years back for La La Land. With the Academy rewarding Mahershala Ali who too won an Oscar two years back it's safe to say that they won't be giving Stone her second Oscar in 3 years. They don't seem to want too many repeat winners in quick succession. Her loss to Weisz at the BAFTA's effectively takes her out of the running to win

Amy Adams- Lynne Cheney (Vice)
She can be known as the modern day Meryl Streep or the male Leonardo DiCaprio. However unlike Leo she hasn't been snubbed repeatedly for what has been the best performance of the year by a mile.
In Vice she plays Lynne Cheney, a powerful real life person and doesn't seem to be forgotten when sharing screen space with the mighty shape shifter in Christian Bale.


Regina King- Sharon Rivers (If Beale Street could talk)
Won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award and seems to be a major contender for the Oscar. Her role as Sharon Rivers lends weight to the lead actress and this is a true supporting performance as at no point her role seems to over power that of the leads.
Based on the snubs it could be possible that the Academy choose to reward If Beale Street could talk by awarding Regina King with the Supporting Actress trophy. Her win and subsequent speech at the Globes did her chances no harm as it was at that time the the voting for the Oscar nominations opened. She could have the support, and she certainly has the capability to win. Her absence from the Screen Actor Guild Awards may prove to be costly.

Rachel Weisz - Sarah Churchill (The Favourite)
A Hollywood veteran and is one name that has consistently featured on the pre cursor award shows. She is the only Actress apart from Regina King to have won in this category in this Awards swing. (Though her win did not require her to beat out King whereas King beat her at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards)
With her co-star Emma Stone having already taken home an Oscar for Lead Actress just 2 years back and with Stone being young one cam say that the Academy may place Weisz higher than stone when casting their ballots. Her win at the BAFTA completely eliminates co-star stone from the running as it is obvious as to who the voters favour. Her role is strong as she is the link between both Queen Anne and her co star and cousin Margot Robbie and it is a meaty and more dominating role that any of her competitors in this category.

This is King vs Weisz. Adams finally ending her Academy drought seems unlikely.

Will win: Regina King
Should win: Rachel Weisz
Dark Horse: Amy Adams 

What to expect from an Oscars Ceremony with no host?

The Oscars will be without a host for the first time since the 1989 edition of the ceremony. That ceremony proved to be a debacle featuring an opening number between Rob Lowe and Snow White.

The absence of a host can work in both ways. Audiences will be intrigued to see how the Academy functions without a host or they may not even time in as there is no star name that they know will be there on screen.

A host takes up a lot of time during the broadcast such as a huge 11 minute opening monologue talking about what the Academy stands for and some controversy in films over the past year. They then point out all the nominated performers seated in the audience and make attempts at one line humour. (Those speeches may still be there this year from individual speakers)

They then pop up throughout the show and try to keep audiences both in the Dolby Theatre and at home entertained. Remember last year's trip to the movie theatre to thank audiences as well as the Hot Dog gun and 2017's tourist visit to the Oscars? Or what about Ellen's pizza order and the Oscar selfie?

All of that will not happen this year. Whew!?
(You decide which punctuation works for you)

The show would seem boring without those but never fear for the Oscars are capable of hiring someone just for an opening number (which to be honest is the best way to start ) be it Hugh Jackman's turn in 2009 and even Neil Patrick Harris' performance in 2010 and as a host with 'Moving Pictures' in 2015.

We can expect an opening number this year as well, as I doubt that the Academy will go with the opening of "please welcome your host" and then pause for silence and I seriously doubt that they have a surprise host and have successfully managed to keep it under wraps.

The opening number could be anything ranging from a parody of Kevin Hart to a song introducing the 8 nominated films or even one of the 5 songs nominated for Best Song in a motion picture.

The Academy does have a large number of what they call star names to present the awards. But isn't that the scene every year? It's just that in this hostless year the presenters are a little bigger deal when in reality they aren't.

They have been attempting to concise their show to 3 hours and this year with no host they might just be able to do that.

No?

There is a possibility of that not happening as the acceptance speeches may take long and we could expect that categories like cinematography, makeup and hairstyling and Visual Effects to take up a lot of time and not be played off as they would take offence for just a few days back these categories were to be presented during the commercials.

All in all this is going to be a unique Oscars as all eyes will be on the Dolby Theatre on Monday morning. I don't think they will be able to do it within 3 hours. 

91st Oscars: Best Actress in a Lead Role

In a landmark accomplishment for the Oscars the Best Actress Race this year will not feature Meryl Streep only for only the 74th time in 91 years.

This category features two debutants in Lady Gaga and Yalitza Aparaicio.

Only 4 actresses have gone on to claim the prize for the debut film.


Let's agree on one thing Melissa McCarthy's (who portrays the character of Lee Israel in Can you ever forgive me ?) winning here is a long shot. Based on the awards swing results she will have to be content with just a nomination.

Yalitza Aparaicio- Cleo (Roma)
Yalitza Aparaicio is the next one who can be eliminated as she has somehow gotten an Oscar nomination despite missing out on nods at the Bafta's the Critics Choice the SAG. It seems as though she has gotten a nomination which is an indicator that the film has the support of the actors branch as Roma is currently the favourite to take home the Oscar for Best Picture and a film winning the top prize sans an acting nomination is very rare. Can the love for Roma propel Aparacio to an Oscar win? Seems unlikely.

The main competition is among these three

Olivia Colman- Queen Anne (The Favourite)
Won Golden Globe in the musical and comedy category as well as the BAFTA for Lead Actress for her portrayal of the sickly Queen Anne. She managed to win the prize at the BAFTAs and is the only legitimate threat to the Close vs Gaga battle. After watching the movie I honestly felt that Rachel Weisz's role was the lead one and Olivia Colman was more of a supporting one. She picked up the win at the last major award before the Oscars which took place just days before Oscar voting ended. The Academy may not want a Glenn Close coronation to look predictable and may have possibly switched their pick to reward the actress from The Favourite.

Lady Gaga- Ally (A Star is Born)
Won Critics Choice award in a tie with Glenn Close. Lady Gaga plays singer Ally in the A Star is Born. The Japanesse proverb says that A mask when applied for too long becomes your real face. Lady Gaga gets rid of that mask and acts as a real person. The rendition of Shallow is what stands out for me along with a completely unseen and out of makeup Lady Gaga. She is the star who is born. Both in the movie as well as in acting. It was a role tailor made for her. The buzz was for Lady Gaga to take home the prize and she was the frontrunner all along before her momentum fizzled out and the overdue narrative took shape and favoured Glenn Close. This is reminiscent of Close vs Pop Star battle akin to the 1986 ceremony where Close lost to Cher.

The argument here against Lady Gaga is that she wasn't really acting as she is actually a singer she was just living out her normal routine sans makeup. So let's get this straight. The academy will reward an individual who spends time adapting and changing their routine so as to get into and live like the character they are becoming.
It would behoove them to reward Lady Gaga if they want to boost their viewerrship but it seems as though they are choosing popularity in the Lead Actor Category.

Glenn Close- Joan Castleman (The Wife)

Has won the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress- Drama, the Screen Actors Guild Award and the Critics Choice Award. Her only loss was to a British Actress portraying a British monarch in a British production at the British Academy Awards. This performance has a quiet brilliance with it. Even without the audio and the background music one would have been able to comprehend the anguish the silence the of Close. Her impassioned speech following her Golden Globes triumph would have just increased her chances even further. All of the actors seem to be rallying behind the long overdue industry veteran here. And no the Award for Close is not a sympathy award. It's overdue and she is the star. It's not a scene where Close's performance is the 2nd or 3rd best one of the year and neither is it her best ever performance. It is just the best performance of 2018. The win at the SAG nearly confirms that Close will pick up her first Oscar as it is more or less the same body of voters (The actors) who cast the votes at both shows. What could work against this film is that Close nomination for Best Actress is it's sole nod at the Oscars and voters could see it as not a big enough film. However it's momentum fizzling out right at the finish line seems unlikely. Close has beaten out pre season favourite Lady Gaga and has looked untouchable.

Expect Gary Oldman to say the words and the Oscar goes to Glenn Close- The Wife.




Will win: Glenn Close
Should win: Lady Gaga
Dark Horse: Olivia Colman